Politics

Are we on the cusp of the first $1 trillion Farm Bill?

Chase Purdy · 7 min read · Apr 27, 2026
Are we on the cusp of the first $1 trillion Farm Bill?

The next Farm Bill — which will be marked up this week in the US House of Representatives — will likely be the first trillion-dollar Farm Bill. Actually, it’ll be a little more, $1.4 trillion over ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent baseline published in February. It’s also a somewhat misleading number, because the Farm Bill is a somewhat misleading name.

Most of what Congress calls the Farm Bill isn’t spent on farms at all. It’s spent on groceries. That’s because SNAP — the federal food assistance program — takes up the bulk of it. Of the proposed $1.4 trillion, roughly $985 billion would go toward nutrition assistance, or about 70%. Everything else fits into the remaining 30%. That includes all the commodity supports, crop insurance, conservation, rural development, forestry, energy programs, research that the US funds.

COMMODITY BREAD · FOOD SYSTEMS
The Farm Bill is mostly a food assistance bill
Share of total Farm Bill mandatory spending by title, in decade increments. Before the 1973 Farm Bill, nutrition wasn’t part of the bill at all.
Nutrition (SNAP)
Commodity programs
Crop insurance
Conservation
Everything else
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030* 1973: SNAP added SNAP 70% COMMODITY 8% SHARE OF FARM BILL SPENDING
SOURCE · Congressional Research Service (R45425, RS22131); USDA Economic Research Service Farm Bill Spending tables; CBO February 2024 and February 2026 baselines. *2030 figures based on CBO February 2026 baseline (FY2027–FY2036), reflecting changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (P.L. 119-21).
Note · Figures are approximate shares of mandatory spending and may not sum to exactly 100% due to rounding and minor title exclusions.

It wasn’t always like this. Before 1973, food assistance wasn’t part of the Farm Bill.

The Food Stamp Program had existed since 1964, when then-President Lyndon Johnson signed the Food Stamp Act as standalone legislation. It was the result of classic congressional logrolling in which urban Democrats traded votes for wheat and cotton subsidies in exchange for rural support for food stamps. But still, the two programs remained separate. Farm policy was farm policy. Food assistance was something else.

By the early 1970s, that arrangement was becoming a liability for the rural lawmakers who ran the congressional agriculture committees. If food stamps could pass on a standalone vote, urban Democrats no longer needed to trade their support for commodity programs to get it, and the farm subsidy side of the ledger would lose a reliable voting bloc. In 1973, the House and Senate Agriculture committees agreed to fold food stamps into a single omnibus farm bill. The Agriculture and Consumer Protection Act of 1973 made the bundling official.

The full story is involved, but the marriage suited both sides. Rural lawmakers kept urban Democrats at the table for commodity programs, and food stamps gained the protection of a multi-year authorization rather than surviving year-to-year in the appropriations process.

That bargain held for half a century. But it’s been strained.

The 2018 Farm Bill nearly collapsed over House Republican demands for stricter SNAP work requirements. The bill failed on the House floor, though, with all Democrats and 30 Republicans voting against it. The work requirements were ultimately dropped, and the bill was signed in December. The 2023 reauthorization didn’t happen on time. Congress has been operating on extensions and stopgaps. The bill that was supposed to be done in 2023 is now expected to slip into 2026 — if it gets done then. The reason is largely that the two halves of the coalition no longer trust each other to deliver, and the spending imbalance is part of why.

COMMODITY BREAD · FOOD SYSTEMS
The first trillion-dollar Farm Bill
Total projected Farm Bill cost over the 10-year budget window at enactment, in billions of nominal dollars. The 2026 baseline is the first to cross the trillion-dollar mark.
Nutrition / SNAP
All other titles
$0 $500B $1T $1.5T $2T $200B 1996 Bill $380B 2002 Bill $604B 2008 Bill $956B 2014 Bill $867B 2018 Bill $1.4T 2026 Baseline* 10-YEAR COST AT ENACTMENT (NOMINAL $)
SOURCE · CBO baselines (April 2018, May 2023, February 2024, February 2026); CRS “Budget Issues That Shaped the 2018 Farm Bill” (R45425); American Farm Bureau Federation Market Intel. *2026 figure is CBO February 2026 baseline projection covering FY2027–FY2036, after passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (P.L. 119-21, signed July 2025).
Note · All figures nominal. Nutrition share includes SNAP and related food assistance programs. The 2026 baseline reflects $186.7B in projected SNAP cuts under OBBBA over the 10-year window.

Then, in July 2025, Congress did something the Farm Bill itself couldn’t manage: it passed major SNAP changes anyway, through a reconciliation package — the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — that bypassed the bipartisan agriculture committee process entirely. Work requirements got expanded to age 64 (up from 49), the Thrifty Food Plan was frozen to limit future benefit increases.

When a Republican from Iowa and a Democrat from the Bronx sit down to negotiate the Farm Bill, they are nominally negotiating the same legislation. They are not actually negotiating about the same thing. One is fighting for crop insurance and reference prices for corn and soybeans. The other is fighting for the grocery budgets of roughly 42 million Americans. The two have been linked by a procedural marriage, not by any underlying policy logic.

That marriage produced one of the largest social safety net programs in the federal government, hidden inside a bill most people assume is about tractors. Whether it survives a trillion-dollar price tag is a question Congress should no longer postpone. And while they are at it, maybe they consider a new name for the bill.

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